Interesting: Bye Bye Biden or One More Term

Overview

A New York Times/Siena College poll has found that President Biden is on stronger footing than he was a year ago, but he is neck-and-neck in a possible rematch against Donald Trump. Biden's approval rating has risen but remains low at 39 percent.

Key Findings

• Biden's Standing: President Biden is heading into the 2024 presidential contest on firmer footing than a year ago, with his approval rating inching upward. Democrats have broadly accepted him as their standard-bearer, even if half would prefer someone else.

• Warning Signs: Despite his improved standing, Biden remains broadly unpopular among a voting public that is pessimistic about the country's future. His approval rating is a mere 39 percent.

• Tight Race with Trump: The poll found Biden in a neck-and-neck race with former President Donald Trump, tied at 43 percent apiece in a hypothetical rematch in 2024.

• Voters' Feelings: Biden has been buoyed by voters' feelings of fear and distaste toward Trump. Some Republicans, like John Wittman, a heating and air conditioning contractor, would vote for Biden over Trump, calling Trump "a criminal."

• Democratic Support: Biden's support among Democrats is wide but not deep. About 30 percent of voters who plan to vote for Biden in November 2024 hope Democrats would nominate someone else.

• Enthusiasm for Harris: A higher share of Democrats, 26 percent, expressed enthusiasm for the notion of Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee in 2024.

• Weak Showing Among Small Donors: The lack of fervor about Biden helps explain the relatively weak showing among small donors in a quarterly fundraising report.

• Voters' Views: Some voters, like Melody Marquess, a retiree from Texas, voted for Biden in 2020 as “the lesser of two evils” and would again vote for him over Trump, despite concerns about age and handling of the pandemic.

• Recovery from Last Summer: Biden has recovered significantly from last summer, with enthusiasm about him ticking up after the Supreme Court's decision overturning Roe v. Wade, better-than-expected midterm elections results, and improvements in the economy.

• Vulnerability with Hispanic Voters: Biden shows early signs of potential vulnerability with Hispanic voters, who have shifted toward Republicans in recent elections.

• Concerns About Age and Performance: Democrats who did not want Biden to be the nominee last July were primarily focused on his age and job performance.

Quotes from Voters

• “Donald Trump is not a Republican, he’s a criminal,” said John Wittman, who would vote for Biden over Trump.

• “Joe is Joe. He’s always kept his word. He’s done well for the country,” said David Scoggin, a retired police officer who is enthusiastic about Biden.

• “I’m sorry, but both of them, to me, are too old,” said Melody Marquess, who sees Biden as less mentally capable but Trump as "just evil."

Conclusion

The poll paints a picture of a divided electorate with deep concerns about the direction of the country. While Biden has made gains, his support remains fragile, and the potential rematch with Trump promises to be highly competitive.

Analysis: Favorability Ratings Of Candidates

• Joe Biden: 42 percent favorable, 54 percent unfavorable, 2 percent haven't heard enough about him;

• Donald Trump: 37 percent favorable, 59 percent unfavorable, 3 percent haven't heard enough about him;

• Ron DeSantis: 33 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable, 18 percent haven't heard enough about him;